Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
